ingredients for raising the cake
The last quarter of the year will be busy in Brazil. In addition to the election, which will now have a second round, the World Cup, Black Friday, the payment of the 13th salary, Christmas and New Year are on the calendar. These dates are expected to trigger the market and put money into circulation.
Despite different expectations, several sectors of the economy expect a positive impact in the last quarter of 2022. After all, it is the first end of the year in which vaccination against the coronavirus will enable a life close to normal, since the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic.
Nevertheless, the difficult economic moment in the country should impose moderation on buyers. The Belo Horizonte Chamber of Commerce (CDL-BH) believes that sales should increase by around 10% compared to 2021.
This perspective is based on earlier commemorative dates, such as Easter and Valentine’s Day. “Our expectations are very positive. We see this increase in sales here in Belo Horizonte during the year,” says CDL-BH president, Marcelo de Souza e Silva.
According to him, retailers notice a change in the profile of customers, who want to shop closer to home. This would force local businesses to invest in improvements, both services and structures.
“Now, a regional retailer needs to invest in service and mobility, in order to keep a customer who previously did not shop close to home,” he explains.
If trade expectations are confirmed, it will also be good for the industrial sector. This is what the Economic Administration of the Federation of Industries of the State of Minas Gerais (Fiemg) believes.
“Expectations for this year’s celebration are of a heterogeneous effect between economic and industrial activities. Income-stimulating measures, reductions in tax rates and a drop in the unemployment rate may favor more shoppers in shopping malls.”
The association also points out that vaccination against Covid-19 will enable the movement of tourism and travel. “On the other hand, high interest rates, higher household indebtedness and still high commodity inflation indicate that consumers should reduce the value and quantity of items they buy on these dates.”
This is the case of insurance broker Felipe Vieira, 34 years old. He intends to enter 2023 with less debt, so he intends to spend a little in the coming months. Faced with high prices, Felipe is not about to forget about planning to realize his dream of owning his own home. “The plan is not to spend anything more than usual. I am saving money to pay off my loan. It is a necessary effort. It’s a real-life project,” he says.
Bars and restaurants
Historically little affected by the date of the last quarter of the year, bars and restaurants have strong reason for optimism: they have been presented with an event that promises to increase the sector’s income. This time the World Cup will be held in November, due to the desert climate that affects Qatar, the host country of this edition, in the middle of the year.
The Brazilian Association of Bars and Restaurants Minas Gerais (Abrasel-MG) says that the sector must increase the number of employees by 30% to meet the demand that must be provided by the main soccer competition in the world.
“The last two weeks before Christmas are interesting for bars and restaurants. And the World Cup is coming, on top of the festive celebration at the end of the year. Expectations of the best possible,” says Abrasel-MG advisory board member Ricardo Rodrigues.
Supplying the food sector, agribusiness expects a natural increase in meat production, mainly pork and poultry, by the end of the year. But this preparation for the increase in 2022 starts a little earlier, also because of the World Cup. This is what the head of agribusiness of the Faemg system (the Federation of Agriculture and Livestock of the State of Minas Gerais), Caio Coimbra, says.
“The cup is a big event, which lasts a little longer. A home barbecue can create a demand for meat. Usually, the consumption of alcoholic beverages has increased, that is, the production of barley and other agricultural products for the production of beer and spirits has increased,” he analyzed.
Another sector expected to see growth by the end of the year is e-commerce, especially with the unprecedented coincidence of Black Friday’s date with the World Cup. Despite high inflation, retail and e-commerce companies in all segments have high expectations.
In the first half of this year alone, e-commerce represented R$118.6 billion in sales, according to the 46th edition of Nielsen/Ebit’s Webshoppers. The prediction of the Brazilian Electronic Commerce Association is that in this second half of the year, e-commerce will reach a sales volume of R$ 91.5 billion. Keep in mind that marketplace sales represent almost 80% of digital commerce.
“With the increase in sales in this period, the merchant must prepare his inventory so as not to sell without goods and frustrate his customers, negotiate with suppliers and prepare his team,” says Claudio Dias, executive director of Magis5, automation and market management.