Year-end sales can inject up to BRL 6.3 billion into the economy

The year-end sale should inject up to R$6.3 billion into the local economy, according to estimates from the Campinas Trade and Industry Association (Acic). The value only applies to products that must be placed on the market during the Christmas period. Before that, expectations fall on the celebration of Children’s Day, Black Friday and the World Cup, which could keep the balance high in this fourth quarter.

According to Acić’s estimate, only for Children’s Day, which is celebrated on October 12, there should be a 3.2 percent increase in sales compared to the same period last year. For that date, the average price of a gift should reach 158 BRL, which represents an increase of 2.6% compared to 154 BRL in 2021.

On the other hand, e-commerce should participate with 15.5% of sales for that date, recording a turnover of R$ 146.7 million this year, compared to R$ 127 million achieved last year.

Regarding the temporary workforce, a growth of 9% compared to 2021 is predicted for employment in Campinas and the region, with 1,385 vacancies in Campinas and 2,550 in the entire Metropolitan Region of Campinas (RMC).

According to economist Laerte Martins from Acico, the figures reflect the strength and importance that the date represents for trade and consumers. “Despite unfavorable conditions created by inflation and loss of purchasing power, consumers do not fail to treat children,” he pointed out.

For the next commercial dates, trade in the region is likely to remain red-hot. When it comes to the 2022 World Cup, which takes place from November 20 to December 18 in Qatar, the outlook is optimistic: a financial shift of around R$ 250 million in the trade and service sector in Campinas and the region. The amount represents 25% more than that recorded in the 2018 edition of the event in Russia, which generated BRL 200 million.

During this period, sports equipment sales should increase by BRL 15 million, compared to BRL 10 million in 2018 (50% more). The same is happening with TVs that want to watch, which should represent R$155 million, which is 19.2% more than the R$130 million sold on TVs in the previous World Cup.

In the services sector, the projection for the travel and tourism segments is an increase in financial transactions of 50%, from R$60 million in 2018 to R$80 million this year.

Another highly anticipated date is Black Friday 2022, which follows on November 25. It is expected to move approximately R$988 million, an increase of 21.23% compared to 2021.

In Campinas alone, the amount should be around R$508 million, while in the Campinas Metropolitan Region (RMC) the value may reach R$480 million.

The date should also contribute to the employment of 355 temporary jobs in Campinas and the region: 125 in Campinas and 230 in RMC, against 114 and 211 respectively in 2021, representing a growth of 10% in Campinas and 9% in the region.

For the last days of the year, the payment of the 13th salary should stimulate sales in the store. Growth of 4.10% is forecast for this year, with financial transactions of R$3.7 billion in RMC and R$2.8 billion in Campinas, totaling R$6.5 billion. At Christmas 2021, sales were concluded at BRL 6.3 billion, which is 3.51% higher than the BRL 6.1 billion invoiced on the same date in 2021.

About 101,000 employees should start hiring temporary workers for the Christmas period this year, according to a survey by the National Confederation of Trade (CNC).

There are 12,695 temporary employees in Campinas and the region for Natal, about 7.26% more than the 11,836 employed in 2021. In Campinas alone, 5,830 temporary jobs will be created. “Even with declining purchasing power, rising prices, accelerating inflation, devaluation of the dollar and a high Selic rate of 13.75% per annum, purchases in the fourth quarter of 2022 are optimistic despite the difficulties of celebrating Christmas, traditionally the largest commercial sales date in the country. Optimism has been complemented by a positive inflow of funds from the 13th salary, which should release about R$ 3.95 billion in the economy of Campinas and the region in this 4th quarter,” Martins assesses.

Despite the positive outlook regarding the date, traders still feel insecure, due to the decline in the purchasing power of Brazilians. Monica Tan, 42, manager of a convenience store, is not so optimistic. He estimates that sales at the moment are lower than in the first months after the pandemic.

“Inflation is very high, so we don’t manage to recover cash at the same levels as before. Children’s Day, for example, is not as expressive as we imagined. On the 13th, consumers have a ‘fat’ to spend,” he assessed.

The manager of a clothing store, Bruna Ramos, believes that only after the election results, purchases will start to increase again. “We have already recovered from the losses of the pandemic, however, we have not returned to previous levels. I believe that the store will feel the reality better after the election, when we expect sales growth of 20 percent,” he pointed out. .

According to Pontifical Catholic University (PUC) economist Cândido Ferreira da Silva Filho, what is currently keeping the market active are emergency packages and aid paid by the government, as the local and international political scenario is not favorable for economic recovery.

“What we are seeing is a very slow recovery of the economy. There is still a lot of uncertainty. Issues like the war between Ukraine and Russia and the elections now taking place in Brazil are creating a lot of uncertainty, reducing investment. The public sector is very unbalanced, with overspending and very high indebtedness. All this has driven away investors and therefore we are not creating enough jobs, in the volume that we need. And even less with incomes, salaries, adequate. In addition to all that, the recovery of the economy is slow. It is logical that slowly we are returning to pre-pandemic levels. There has been a certain recovery. The service sector has been growing and creating jobs, but everything is very slow. We have to wait for some definitions in the political field to then believe that the economy will grow again,” he analyzed.

With the appropriate dates planned for this fourth quarter, Filho estimates that the biggest impact should be felt at Christmas, especially with the arrival of the 13th salary. “These commemorative dates are important in the economy. In the case of Brazil, we must highlight Christmas, because it stimulates consumption after receiving the 13th salary. the account of Auxília Brasil, which has already injected more than R$ 50 billion into the economy. So thanks to this, the sale was held in the store,” he emphasized.

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