The fourth quarter of 2022, with four important trade dates, will move the sector in Campinas and the region.
Children’s Day, the World Cup, Black Friday and the Christmas period promise an increase in the financial circulation of the sale of goods and services and the possibility of hiring temporary labor.
Sales for Children’s Day 2022, October 12, are expected to increase by 3.2% compared to the same period in 2021 in Campinas and the region. The average gift value should reach BRL 158.00, representing a 2.6% increase over BRL 154.00 in 2021.
E-commerce is expected to account for 15.5% of sales, recording revenues of R$146.7 million this year, up from R$127 million last year.
For the temporary workforce, a growth of 9% is predicted to 2,021 jobs, in Campinas and the region, with 1,385 in Campinas and 2,550 in the entire RMC.
According to Acic economist Laerte Martins, these relatively positive figures reflect the strength and importance the date represents for trade and consumers. “Despite the unfavorable conditions caused by inflation and loss of purchasing power in the economy, consumers do not fail to treat children,” he says.
For the World Cup 2022, which will be held from November 20 to December 18, in Qatar, the perspective is for a financial movement of about R$ 250 million in trade and services in Campinas and the region. The amount represents 25% more than the 2018 edition of the event in Russia, which generated BRL 200 million.
In the trade, sports equipment sales should increase by BRL 15 million, compared to BRL 10 million in 2018 (50% more). TV sales should reach R$ 155 million, which is 19.2% more than the R$ 130 million TVs sold at the previous World Cup.
In services, the projection for the travel and tourism sectors is a 50% growth in financial transactions, from R$60 million in 2018 to R$80 million this year.
In Campinas and the region, Black Friday 2022, November 25, is predicted to bring in approximately R$988 million, an increase of 21.23% compared to 2021. In Campinas alone, the amount should be around R$508 million and, in RMC, R$ 480 million.
“The promotion, which takes place on the last Friday in November, the day after Thanksgiving in the United States, on Friday and Saturday last year brought in about 79.5 billion US dollars in that country,” informs the economist at Aćić.
The date should also contribute to the employment of 355 temporary jobs in Campinas and the region, of which 125 in Campinas and 230 in the RMC, against 114 and 211 respectively in 2021, representing a growth of 10% in Campinas and 9% in the region.
The forecast for Christmas 2022 in Campinas and the region is a growth of 4.10%, with financial transactions of R$ 3.7 billion in RMC and of R$ 2.8 billion in Campinas, for a total of R 6.5 billion $. At Christmas 2021, sales amounted to BRL 6.3 billion, which is 3.51% more than the BRL 6.1 billion invoiced on the same date in 2021.
Temporary workforce hiring for Christmas 2022 is expected to hit about 101,000 employees, according to a survey by the National Trade Confederation. The number of temporary employees in Campinas and the region for Natal should reach 12,695, about 7.26% compared to 11,836 employees in 2021. Campinas alone should create 5,830 temporary jobs.
Despite falling purchasing power, rising prices, accelerating inflation, devaluation of the dollar and a high Selic rate of 13.75% per annum, purchases for the fourth quarter of 2022 are optimistic, given the difficulties of celebrating Christmas, the country’s biggest commercial sales date. Optimism is complemented by the positive inflow of funds from the 13th salary, which should release about R$ 3.95 billion in the economy of Campino and the region in this fourth quarter.
In 2021, e-commerce in Brazil generated about R$ 161 billion. R$ 174 billion is predicted for this year. In Campinas, the projection for this year is R$5.7 billion, about 8% above the 2021 revenue of R$5.2 billion.
In the Metropolitan Region, e-commerce is expected to generate BRL 5.4 billion in 2022, which is 8.10% more than last year’s amount of BRL 5 billion. “For the last quarter of this year, the turnover estimate is R$ 1.4 billion, in Campinas, and R$ 1.3 billion, in RMC, values corresponding to 8% and 8.10%, respectively, above those confirmed in 2021 . year”, reports Martins.