The decline in the supply of computers and tablets will continue until 2023

The pessimistic outlook is due to inflation, the weakening of the global economy and the increase in purchases over the past two years.

The pessimistic outlook is due to inflation, the weakening of the global economy and the increase in purchases over the past two years.

Global PC and tablet shipments are in steep decline but will continue to decline in 2024, according to a new IDC study.

Traditional PC shipments are forecast to decline 12.8% to 305.3 million units in 2022, while IDC expects tablet shipments to decline 6.8% to 156.8 million. The combined PC and tablet market will shrink by 2.6% in 2023 before returning to growth in 2024, according to IDC.

The consultant attributes the reduced outlook to inflation, the weakening of the global economy and the increase in purchases in the last two years. Consumer demand has slowed down, demand for education has largely been met, and business demand has been suppressed due to worsening macroeconomic conditions.

The new forecast is part of IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Tracking of Personal Computing Devices, which collects historical and forecast trend analysis data from more than 90 countries. It distinguishes between traditional computers (including desktops, laptops and workstations) and tablets. Remittances are to distribution channels or end users.

With economic headwinds accelerating, consumer sentiment will worsen, resulting in consumer market contractions over the next six quarters, Linn Huang, vice president of device research at IDC, said in a press release.

“An economic recovery in time for the next major rebuilding cycle could spur some growth in the latter years of our forecast. Although the volumes are not reaching the peaks of the pandemic, we expect the consumer market to approach the market segments premiumHuang said.

Return of growth after 2023

IDC expects shipments to grow after 2023, and that by 2026 total shipments will be around 477.7 million, including 269.3 million for consumers, 63.6 million for the business sector, 75.9 million for the SME sector and 69 million for the public sector.

While demand is slowing, the outlook for remittances remains above pre-pandemic levels, said Jitesh Ubrani, head of mobility research at IDC.

“Long-term demand will be driven by a slow economic recovery combined with the company’s hardware upgrade to support Windows 10 coming to an end. It is also expected that educational implementations and hybrid work will become the basis for increasing additional volumes,” said Ubrani.

Demand has remained weak since the second quarter of 2020.

Worldwide shipments fell 15.3% year-over-year to 71.3 million units in the second quarter of 2022, according to data released by IDC in July. It was the second quarter in a row with lower shipments, after two years of growth. IDC noted that the decline was larger than expected as supply and logistics deteriorated further due to the quarantine in China and ongoing macroeconomic headwinds.

While Lenovo, HP Inc. and Dell Technologies retained their top 3 spots, Apple dropped to fifth place, tied with ASUS. Researchers attributed the drop to a drop in production during the quarter. As a result, Acer rose to 4th place during the quarter. Barring any other supply issues, IDC expects Apple to ramp up production in the second half of the year.

Quarterly PC volume at the start of the pandemic peaked at 74.3 million in the second quarter of 2020. Pre-pandemic volumes in the second quarter of 2018 and 2019 were 62.1 million and 65.1 million units, respectively.

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