[시크릿259회] Visa ( V ) and AFRM Holdings ( AFRM ) performed well, but there are concerns about lower earnings in the second half of the year due to unfavorable macro factors.
※ Class A visa Visa Inc. Class A (V) New York Stock Exchange
The world’s largest card company, which accounts for about 60% of international credit payments. Hence, it has several growth drivers such as consumer payments, new payments including B2B and value-added services.
– The share price continued to rise steadily, but recently the upward trend was stopped due to the fear of economic recession and the further spread of Corona 19 and continues to rise and fall in the range of around USD 200.
After the positive result of the second quarter, the aggregation of the results of the third quarter continues the strong growth of payments in the US.
– According to Mirae Asset Securities, the growth rate of indirect payments is increasing as e-commerce transactions and domestic travel recover.
In addition, direct payments in July and August continue double-digit growth.
Cross-border payments, which refer to direct purchases abroad and reverse direct purchase transactions, are growing rapidly.
-According to Mirae Asset Securities, July and August were up 55% year-on-year, but the truth is that there is a decline of 60% suggested in the conference call at the end of July.
It seems impossible to rule out the possibility of a gradual decline as the holiday season progresses.
If there is a risk, due to the expansion of the fintech market, Visa tried to respond by buying Plaid, a fintech startup in 2020, but failed.
– The intention was to eliminate potential competition, but this was prevented by the authorities, in the long term it is necessary to come up with an alternative and present it to investors.
– With the continuation of the Fed’s recent policy of rapid tightening, the possibility of an economic downturn should be kept in mind.
– The current valuation is not bad as it is difficult to guarantee that the increase in liquidation value due to the holiday season will continue in the second half, but it seems that one should consider whether it is the right option to buy payment-related shares at this time.
※ Affirm Holdings Inc Class A Affirm Holdings Inc (AFRM) NASDAQ
The company founded by Max Revchin, the co-founder of PayPal, and the holding company Afirm, which manages the postpaid representative (BNPL), currently has 10,000 large and small commercial stores, including Amazon and Wal-Mart.
– In the USA, the conditions for issuing credit cards are strict, and children’s independence is premature, so the BNPL service was very popular among the MZ generation.
The stock price has rebounded since July, but the Fed’s aggressive stance recently has heightened concerns about a slowing economy.
Fourth-quarter sales rose 40% year-over-year to $364 billion, with transactions totaling $4.4 billion, up 77% year-over-year.
Active customers increased 96%, franchisees increased 710%, with continued growth.
In particular, according to Mirae Asset Securities, the amount of payments in the travel/ticketing sector needs to increase by 87% compared to the same period last year.
In addition, operating expenses were also lower than expected and operating profit margins also exceeded market expectations.
We provide conservative guidance that reflects the Fed’s strong willingness to tighten and concerns about a slowing economy.
We lowered our sales estimates by 3% and slightly increased our transaction value, but we decreased our franchise sales and increased operating expenses by 11%, which raised concerns in the market.
According to Mirae Asset Securities, growth expectations have been reduced as the challenging macro environment continues, as the rate of business expansion is likely to slow due to higher delinquency rates and rising funding costs.
While there are growth prospects such as new products and Amazon/Shopify partnerships, the analysis shows that this is unlikely to result in growth in the short term outside of negative macro factors.
Journalist Lee Seal ah email@example.com
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